During the last year there have been many articles about the upcoming sin­gu­lar­i­ty and what will happen after that. Elon Musk or Stephen Hawking have issued warnings about the impending doom, while others are more optimistic and are hoping that cures for all diseases will be found, global warming will no longer be an issue and world peace will install.

However, I think that most of these pre­dic­tions make some very strong as­sump­tions, some of which might not be true.

One of the main arguments is that tech­no­log­i­cal im­prove­ments are ex­po­nen­tial and we will get better stuff much faster then before. But there is a problem. Only the ex­po­nen­tial function grows ex­po­nen­tially in­def­i­nite­ly. …continue.